Cancer deaths are expected to rise to more than 18 million by 2050. This is a drastic increase of nearly 75% from 2024. A new analysis by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators suggests that cancer deaths are expected to have a drastic surge in the next 25 years. The findings of the analysis are published in The Lancet.Cancer cases rising
The analysis found that there has been a rapid spike in cancer cases and deaths globally between 1990 and 2023. The researchers said that without prompt action and targeted funding, 30.5 million new cancer cases and 18.6 million deaths are expected to happen in 2025. Over half of new cases and two-thirds of deaths will be occurring in low- and middle-income countries.“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally, and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources. Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritised in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings,” lead author Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA, said in a statement. “Ensuring equitable cancer outcomes globally will require greater efforts to reduce disparities in health service delivery, such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment and supportive care,” she added.Lifestyle factors play a huge role
The study estimates that 42% (4.3 million) of the estimated 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 were linked to 44 potentially modifiable risk factors, which stresses the opportunity for action. In 2023, behavioural risk factors contributed to most cancer deaths across all country income levels. Tobacco has contributed to 21% of cancer deaths globally, and was the leading risk factor in all country income levels, except low-income countries, where the leading risk factor was unsafe sex (linked to 12.5% of all cancer deaths).In 2023, cancer deaths in men (46%) were due to potentially modifiable risk factors (mostly tobacco, unhealthy diet, high alcohol use, occupational risks, and air pollution) than in women (36%), for whom the leading risk factors were tobacco, unsafe sex, unhealthy diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.
“With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet, and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives, alongside improving accurate and early diagnosis and treatment to support individuals who develop cancer. Reducing the burden of cancer across countries and worldwide demands both individual action and effective population-level approaches to reduce exposure to known risks,” co-author Dr Theo Vos from IHME added. Equitable cancer-control efforts should be the top priority
The study emphasizes the importance of cancer prevention policies in low and middle-income countries. “The rise of cancer in LMICs is an impending disaster. There are cost-effective interventions for cancer in countries at all stages of development. These cancer burden estimates can help broaden the discussion around the importance of cancer and other non-communicable diseases in the global health agenda. To control the growth of non-communicable diseases, including cancer in LMICs, an interdisciplinary approach for evidence generation and multi-sectoral collaboration and coordination for implementation is urgently needed,” co-author Dr Meghnath Dhimal from the Nepal Health Research Council said. “These new estimates and forecasts can support governments and the global health community in developing data-informed policies and actions to improve cancer control and outcomes around the world. They can also support tracking of progress towards global and regional cancer targets,” Dr Force said. “Our analysis also highlights the need for more data from sources such as cancer and vital registries, particularly in lower-resource settings. Supporting cancer surveillance systems is crucial to informing both a local and global understanding of cancer burden,” she added.
