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Indian equity market nears lifetime highs due to strong macro indicators, foreign inflows, and political stability. Atul Bhole of Kotak Mahindra AMC discusses market fundamentals.
Patience, systematic investing, and the ability to exploit fear and greed cycles are essential to achieving long-term investing goals.
The Indian equity market has rebounded after a prolonged sluggish period and is now approaching lifetime highs. Factors such as strong macroeconomic indicators, consistent foreign inflows, and political stability are providing positive momentum. As a result, market sentiment remains optimistic despite high valuations and subdued earnings growth.
Investors are left wondering—is this surge rooted in solid fundamentals or is it yet another bout of FOMO-fueled exuberance?
In this conversation with News18, Atul Bhole, Senior Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra AMC and a seasoned market observer, breaks down what’s driving the rally, how retail investors are behaving post smallcap volatility, and what lies ahead for key sectors like defence, financials, and consumption in FY26.
Markets are dancing near lifetime highs. How much of this is driven by fundamentals and how much by FOMO?
Bhole: India’s macro fundamentals are currently in a sweet spot and among the strongest globally. Tightly controlled fiscal and current account deficits, lower inflation, a stable currency, and steady GDP growth of around 6–6.5% are attracting foreign flows in a big way. While these fundamentals have been strong for some time, their resilience became even more evident during the ongoing global trade war.
From the start of the year until mid-April 2025, FIIs sold close to $15 billion worth of Indian equities. However, since mid-April, the trend has reversed, with FIIs buying around $5.5 billion—largely from the secondary market rather than through IPOs, QIPs, or direct stake sales.
Domestic flows have also remained reasonable, with mutual funds raising cash levels and retail participation staying measured compared to the recent past. While corporate earnings growth remains muted and valuations are stretched, strong macro fundamentals are clearly driving robust foreign and domestic flows into Indian equity markets.
What’s your reading of retail investor behaviour right now? Have most of them learnt lessons after playing with fire by chasing SME and momentum-heavy smallcaps?
Bhole: Several SMID stocks witnessed value erosion of 40–60% between June–July 2024 and March–April 2025. These stocks were driven more by momentum, false narratives, illiquidity, and FOMO than by sound fundamentals or reasonable valuations. Institutional investors, such as mutual funds, which rely on research and expert insights, were able to avoid such pitfalls and limit drawdowns.
Some retail investors likely learnt valuable lessons during this episode and may now start appreciating the value that mutual funds and advisors add to long-term wealth creation. However, the market often behaves like a voting machine in the short term—it keeps attracting new investors or leads the same investors to repeat new mistakes. The recent sharp rally in defence stocks after the skirmish is another example of greed or FOMO overriding rational investing behaviour.
Operation Sindoor has also worked like an international defence expo showcasing the might of Indian defence companies. This is also reflected in the dramatic movement in share prices. How strong is the defence story on Dalal Street?
Bhole: India’s defence equipment industry has gained strong momentum over the past 3–5 years, supported by a government-led indigenisation push and larger, expedited orders. The ecosystem is developing well, with private sector players emerging as credible component manufacturers.
Defence stocks performed extremely well post-Covid until mid-2024, driven largely by policy support and effective execution. However, much of the returns were driven by valuation re-rating rather than actual earnings growth. Price-to-earnings multiples jumped from 10–20x to 50–60x. Between mid-2024 and March 2025, many of these stocks saw 40–60% drawdowns from their over-stretched levels.
Post Operation Sindoor, defence stocks bounced back significantly and are once again trading at valuations that may not be justified by near-term fundamentals. While these companies could deliver sustained long-term growth, the market seems to have priced in too much, too soon. A period of cooling-off or extended consolidation in stock prices is likely.
With valuations stretched in certain pockets of the market, do you think the Q4 earnings season was strong enough to justify the rally?
Bhole: The Q4 earnings season has been muted yet again, with 5–10% earnings growth depending on the sector and company size (large caps vs. SMIDs). However, the market hasn’t reacted negatively, as expectations were already lowered after three consecutive quarters of weak growth and cautious corporate commentary.
Markets are forward-looking. While Q4 results aren’t particularly strong, future earnings could improve due to tax breaks, a normal monsoon, stronger wage growth, continued capex, and a low base effect. The ongoing rally is being driven more by strong macro fundamentals and capital flows. A pause may occur until corporate earnings begin to align with expectations.
As an investor today, would you back consumption, capex, or financials in FY26?
Bhole: Post-Covid, all major themes and sectors have had their moments in the sun and are now trading at fair to high valuations. The triggers that powered past sectoral rallies have largely played out. As the market normalises, future returns will likely be driven by individual stock selection rather than broad sector bets.
At a sub-sector level, we are constructive on areas like quick commerce, hospitals, power transmission & distribution, EMS, and large private banks and NBFCs. On a contrarian note, the IT sector—supported by stronger-than-expected US corporate health and good dividend yields—could also present interesting opportunities.
Given current earnings momentum, macro tailwinds, and political stability bets, is Nifty 30,000 a realistic target by end of FY26?
Bhole: At the macro level, India is in a strong position. However, this must begin to reflect in corporate profitability as well. After the recent rally, Indian markets are once again trading at 21–22x forward PE, which requires significantly higher earnings growth than the current pace.
Earnings may pick up with rising disposable incomes, continued capex, and structural reforms. However, global trade dynamics and economic trends pose external risks. Major economies like China and Europe could begin attracting more capital depending on tariff negotiations and monetary/fiscal policy shifts, given their relative valuation advantage. The US fiscal situation and dollar strength will also influence capital flows and asset prices globally.
Investors have been caught between two battlefronts lately—the global trade tariff war and near war-like tensions between India and Pakistan. Now that both seem to be easing, what are the key takeaways for investors from this double dose of geopolitical anxiety?
Bhole: In the long run, stock prices are ultimately anchored to earnings growth. In the short run, markets often overreact to news and sentiment.
Over the past five years, we’ve witnessed events that typically unfold over a decade—or even a century. From the Covid pandemic and wars to supply chain shocks, dramatic progress in computing and AI, and aggressive fiscal moves by the US—markets have endured and evolved through all of it.
The key takeaway for investors is to adapt to new realities while staying grounded in timeless investing principles. Studying market history helps investors manage their behaviour better. Patience, systematic investing, and the ability to exploit fear and greed cycles are essential to achieving long-term investing goals.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst…Read More
Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst… Read More
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